The Impact of Andre Dawkins on Duke’s Season

A lot of Duke fans (myself included) have been eagerly looking forward to the 2010-11 season as the year Duke is finally back where it was in the early part of the decade—dominating the ACC and being a consistent Final Four favorite.

That’s not to say that Duke fans (myself included) haven’t been excited about the upcoming season. Finally having a legitimate offensive post option is something we haven’t enjoyed in a few years, and it looks like Mason Plumlee has the potential to fill the void left by Josh McRoberts over two seasons ago.

However, the unexpected transfer of guard Elliot Williams to Memphis, leaving Duke with only two guards in Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer, caused a lot of fans (again, myself included) to surrender to the expectation of another solid regular season without much likelihood of postseason success.

The early arrival of previous 2010 commit Andre Dawkins seriously changes that expectation by giving Duke a seriously improved backcourt (it should be noted that, at the time of this article, Dawkins isn’t officially a 2009-10 player, but is considered to be a more-than-likely addition to next year’s team).

Dawkins is a highly talented, athletic guard with a pure perimeter shot and a knack for finishing above the rim with ease. Think J.J. Redick meets Gerald Henderson…seriously.

There’s little doubt that Dawkins will contribute offensively next season, but he gives Duke much more than just offense.

For starters, his addition to the backcourt means that Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith won’t have to play 39 minutes per game (they’ll just need to play 36).

With just two guards in the lineup, Scheyer and Smith were pretty much going to play every minute of every game, without exception. With Dawkins, Scheyer and Smith can rotate as the point guard/shooting guard with Dawkins playing significant minutes at shooting guard while either is running the point (expect Scheyer to be the primary point guard). Giving Scheyer and Smith an extra three to four minutes of rest per game will be an enormous benefit come March.

Quick Tangent—Duke’s guard situation has been severely overblown. People (especially opposing fans) seem to forget how successful Scheyer was last season while running the point, not to mention failing to realize that nearly all of the ACC’s premier guards (Ty Lawson, Tyrese Rice, Jack McClinton, Wayne Ellington, Gerald Henderson, Toney Douglas, Jeff Teague, Terrence Oglesby, K.C. Rivers, AD Vassallo) are gone. Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith are two of the most experienced and talented guards in the conference, not to mention the fact that Duke has very versatile forwards who are capable ball handlers. Okay, back to what Dawkins brings.

Dawkins in the backcourt also means that Kyle Singler won’t have to play much at shooting guard.

He’ll likley still spend most of his minutes on the perimeter, but he’ll be matched up with other team’s small forwards instead of quicker guards. That’s a huge benefit for Duke because Singler is an extremely tough matchup for most small forwards, but would have been a bit out of his element defending faster guards. Singler is a natural small forward (that’s what his NBA position will be), so allowing him to play in his element will let him pick up where he left off last year as one of the most dominant forwards in the ACC.

Dawkins instantly makes Duke a much better three-point shooting team as well.

Last year, Duke struggled to find consistency from behind the arch. Greg Paulus never got the shooting touch he had in years past. Henderson was off and on, and perimeter shooting just wasn’t William’s thing. If Singler and Scheyer had an off night from outside, Duke was in trouble (except when Henderson went into one of those unstoppable trances).

With Dawkins, Duke potentially has their best three-point shooter since Redick. Combined with Ryan Kelly, Singler, Scheyer, and (hopefully) Smith, Dawkins could make Duke the most potent three-point shooting team in the ACC.

But Dawkins isn’t just a shooter. He’s an explosive slasher and leaper as well.

Without Williams and Henderson, Duke was going to be without that explosive player who can get to the rim and finish strong (Smith has the athleticism to do that in the right circumstances, but is limited by his size). Dawkins will fill that role well. His athleticism will keep teams from overplaying Duke on the perimeter much like Henderson (and his frequent baseline alley-oops) did last season.

Perhaps the biggest benefit Dawkins gives Duke is somewhat of an intellectual break for Coach K.

Without him, Krzyzewski was going to have to be Napoleonic in his matchup strategies if Duke was going to succeed. Singler would have needed to play a lot at the two-guard spot, Lance Thomas would have been guarding shooting guards, and Duke’s forwards (Singler, Thomas, Kelly, and the Plumlees) were going to look like a human carousel with the amount of rotating they would need to do depending on the lineups of opposing teams.

Dawkins will allow players like Singler, Kelly, and Mason Plumlee to get settled in their natural positions instead of constantly switching positions when and if Smith and Scheyer are on the bench. There will still be some positional rotation (especially on defense…at least Duke won’t have to play much zone), but not nearly to the degree that we would have seen with just two guards in the lineup.

Dawkins is one of the players Duke fans have been looking forward to for a while. His early arrival to Durham will fill a big need for the Blue Devils, while giving fans an early taste of the promise the 2010 class holds for Duke.

There’s simply no question that he makes Duke a much better team.